The US dollar strengthened in relation to the euro and the yen on Tuesday on new retail sales data that showed sales excluding automobiles were up in April.

Without auto sales, retail sales in the US added 0.5 percent, more than had been expected.

Still, with auto sales included retail sales were down 0.2 percent in the month as purchases at auto dealerships and auto parts stores were down 2.8 percent.

Gas station sales were also down in April, falling 0.4 percent despite the increases in gas prices.

At around 11:15 a.m. in New York, the dollar had given back some of the gains versus the euro to trade at $1.5475 to the shared currency while it took ¥104.4750 to buy a dollar.

The greenback also gained on the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, with the dollar trading at 94.12 cents US to the Aussie while the franc traded at SFr1.0514 to the dollar.

The yen was also lower versus several higher-yielding currencies as investors continued to return to risky carry trades.

In late morning trade in New York, the yen traded at ¥13.790 to the South African rand while it was at ¥9.9661 to the Mexican peso and at ¥62.829 to the Brazilian real.

The pound weakened on declines in property prices and higher inflation in April.

Consumer inflation was up an annualized 3 percent in April, a gain of 0.8 percent since the previous month, on food and fuel prices.

Meanwhile, house price declines were becoming more widespread according to a new survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors which found that 82 percent of surveyors reported seeing house price declines in the three months ending in April, the most widespread declines in 30 years.

In March, 66 percent of those surveyed said they had seen prices decline.

It took $1.9461 to buy a pound in late morning trade in New York, while at the same time the pound traded at 79.52p to the euro.

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.4957	1.5159	1.5290	1.5492	1.5623	1.5825	1.5956
GBP/USD	1.9229	1.9426	1.9571	1.9768	1.9913	2.0110	2.0255
USD/JPY	101.35	102.29	103.83	104.77	106.31	107.25	108.79
EUR/JPY	157.52	159.06	160.79	162.33	164.06	165.60	167.33

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.5141	1.5256	1.5474	1.5589	1.5807
GBP/USD	1.9426	1.9571	1.9768	1.9913	2.0110
USD/JPY	102.29	103.83	104.77	106.31	107.25
EUR/JPY	159.06	160.79	162.33	164.06	165.60

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.5239	1.5330	1.5361	1.5391	1.5453	1.5483	1.5514	1.5605
GBP/USD	1.9528	1.9622	1.9653	1.9685	1.9747	1.9779	1.9810	1.9904
USD/JPY	104.02	104.70	104.93	105.15	105.61	105.83	106.06	106.74
EUR/JPY	160.72	161.62	161.92	162.22	162.82	163.12	163.42	164.32

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance	1.5558	1.9841	106.78	164.83
Support	1.5225	1.9499	104.30	161.56

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.5693	1.9965	105.70	163.87
61.8%	1.5566	1.9834	104.75	162.62
50.0%	1.5526	1.9794	104.46	162.24
38.2%	1.5487	1.9754	104.17	161.85
23.6%	1.5439	1.9704	103.81	161.37
0.0%	1.5360	1.9623	103.22	160.60

Scalping can mean different things to different traders, but I personally take scalping to mean very short-term trading, ie trades generally last just a few minutes and no longer than about an hour at most.

Most of my trades last longer than this, but saying that I do still dabble in very short-term trades occasionally and generally do okay, although it is slightly more stressful and you do need quick fingers at times.

However, what I've noticed is that there is definitely one period of the day that is a lot more predictable, and therefore profitable, and that is the start of the London trading session between 8.00 and 9.00 UK time.

I first noticed this when trading the FTSE because having always made pretty good profits trading this index between 8.00 and 9.00, I also noticed that the major European currency pairs like the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD also behaved in a similar way.

This opening hour usually tends to set the trend for the day and as a result you often see strong sustained moves during this hour. Traders start off the day by following the initial direction of the trend and you get decent sized moves without the whipsaws you often get during the rest of the day.

To demonstrate this point, take a look at the 5 minute chart of the EUR/USD for the last two days. I would add charts here but they use up a lot of bandwidth, so to do it yourself add the following indicators: MACD, TRIX, Stochastic (8,3,3), RSI and CCI.

On Tuesday (22/4), you will see that all of these indicators went into oversold territory just before 8.00. Then between 8.05 and 8.10 the CCI crossed upwards through the -100 level and the other indicators followed suit with the MACD and TRIX crossing upwards to mark the start of an upwards trend. This strong opening trend yielded around 30 points, depending on your exact entry and exact points.

It was a similar story on Wednesday (23/4) when the EUR/USD was oversold on the 5 minute chart from about 6.25 onwards. However during the profitable 8.00-9.00 opening hour, the price rose and the indicators emerged out of oversold territory with CCI and Stochastic rising and MACD crossing upwards around 8.30. This could have yielded anything up to 40 points, and even if you'd joined the party late at around 8.35, you still could have netted around 15 points.

These strong moves during the busy opening hour are extremely common, and while you don't get good set-ups like these on the same pair every single day, there is nearly always one major pair that you can take advantage of during this hour.

There are of course times when the opening hour is uneventful or a trade goes against you as no trading method's perfect but the period between 8.00 and 9.00 UK time is definitely the best time to scalp the markets in my experience, particularly if you only ever trade high probability positions like the two examples mentioned previously.

Scalping can mean different things to different traders, but I personally take scalping to mean very short-term trading, ie trades generally last just a few minutes and no longer than about an hour at most.

Most of my trades last longer than this, but saying that I do still dabble in very short-term trades occasionally and generally do okay, although it is slightly more stressful and you do need quick fingers at times.

However, what I've noticed is that there is definitely one period of the day that is a lot more predictable, and therefore profitable, and that is the start of the London trading session between 8.00 and 9.00 UK time.

I first noticed this when trading the FTSE because having always made pretty good profits trading this index between 8.00 and 9.00, I also noticed that the major European currency pairs like the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD also behaved in a similar way.

This opening hour usually tends to set the trend for the day and as a result you often see strong sustained moves during this hour. Traders start off the day by following the initial direction of the trend and you get decent sized moves without the whipsaws you often get during the rest of the day.

To demonstrate this point, take a look at the 5 minute chart of the EUR/USD for the last two days. I would add charts here but they use up a lot of bandwidth, so to do it yourself add the following indicators: MACD, TRIX, Stochastic (8,3,3), RSI and CCI.

On Tuesday (22/4), you will see that all of these indicators went into oversold territory just before 8.00. Then between 8.05 and 8.10 the CCI crossed upwards through the -100 level and the other indicators followed suit with the MACD and TRIX crossing upwards to mark the start of an upwards trend. This strong opening trend yielded around 30 points, depending on your exact entry and exact points.

It was a similar story on Wednesday (23/4) when the EUR/USD was oversold on the 5 minute chart from about 6.25 onwards. However during the profitable 8.00-9.00 opening hour, the price rose and the indicators emerged out of oversold territory with CCI and Stochastic rising and MACD crossing upwards around 8.30. This could have yielded anything up to 40 points, and even if you'd joined the party late at around 8.35, you still could have netted around 15 points.

These strong moves during the busy opening hour are extremely common, and while you don't get good set-ups like these on the same pair every single day, there is nearly always one major pair that you can take advantage of during this hour.

There are of course times when the opening hour is uneventful or a trade goes against you as no trading method's perfect but the period between 8.00 and 9.00 UK time is definitely the best time to scalp the markets in my experience, particularly if you only ever trade high probability positions like the two examples mentioned previously.

The euro gained on the US dollar and the pound on Friday after an official of the European Central Bank assured that interest rates would not drop in the Eurozone in comments ahead of a meeting to G7 finance ministers and central bankers in Washington, D. C.

In late morning trade in New York, the euro was worth $1.5823 while the pound traded at 80.23p to the euro after hitting a new low at 80.33p to the shared currency.

Consumer confidence that hit its lowest level in 26 years in the United States hurt the dollar, while the pound suffered from the assumption that the Bank of England will likely continue to cut interest rates while the ECB seems determined to hold Eurozone rates steady.

The South African rand was higher versus the greenback after yesterday’s move by the central bank there to raise interest rates to 11.5 percent, a half-percentage-point increase.

The rand traded as high as R7.7487 to the greenback before trading at R7.8055 to the dollar in late morning trade in New York.

Only the yen and the Swiss franc gained in relation to the rand on the session, with a rand buying ¥12.943 and trading at R7,8051 to the Swiss franc, as investors avoided carry trades.

The reluctance to enter into risky deals such as carry trades helped the yen and Swiss franc to gains against all major currencies.

At late morning in New York, the yen traded at ¥101.0800 to the dollar and at ¥159.9339 to the euro, while the Swiss franc was at SFr1.0002 to the greenback and at SFr1.5826 to the euro.

The yen and the Swiss franc both saw declines Monday as global equities markets rallied, encouraging investors to enter into risky carry trades in which they borrow money where interest rates are low in order to buy high-yield currencies.

At nearly noon in New York, the yen traded at ¥102.7200 to the US dollar, at ¥161.4757 to the euro, at ¥13.215 to the South African rand and at ¥81.855 to the New Zealand dollar.

The Swiss franc was at SFr1.0148 to the greenback,a t SFr1.5925 to the euro, and at SFr2.0159 to the pound.

Meanwhile, the pound was lower versus the US dollar on the possibility that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this month at the same time as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady.

In late morning trade in New York, the pound traded at 50.34p to the dollar and at 79.13p to the euro.

The Australian dollar was generally lower on sentiment that economic growth there will slow and the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates.

While the aussie declined versus the US dollar to 92.81 US cents to the aussie, it still gained versus the yen to ¥95.3293 to the aussie.

The US dollar was weaker versus the euro and the yen on Friday after the Labor Department reported that 80,000 jobs were lost in the United States in March, more than had been expected by analysts.

At just before noon in New York the dollar was trading at $1.5730 to the euro while it was at ¥101.7450 in relation to the yen.

The yen was helped by a retreat from carry trades as investor sentiment was hurt by the US jobs report.

The yen traded at ¥160.0398 to the euro.

The pound was down in relation to the euro and the greenback on worries that recession in the US could hurt economic growth in the UK.

In late morning trade in New York the pound traded at 78.82p to the euro and at 50.11p to the dollar.

Meanwhile, the South African rand declined versus major currencies on the avoidance of carry trades.

Earlier in the week the rand was stronger on signs that Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe could be on his way out of power after elections there.

Mugabe has presided over a weakening of the Zimbabwe economy that has left the inflation rate there at 164,000 percent.

In New York around noon the rand traded at R7.8035 to the dollar and at R12.275 to the euro.

The US dollar hit another record low versus the euro on Monday on fears that there will be more losses for banks due to US economic declines.

After going as low as $1.5275 to the euro, the dollar traded at $1.5173 to the euro in late morning trade in New York.

A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that the euro could strengthen to as much as $1.57, based on the analysis of trading patterns and prices.

The dollar was also lower versus the yen, dropping as low as ¥102.62 before trading at ¥103.7000 at around 11:30 a.m. in New York as equities markets declined and investors fled risk.

The dollar was hurt by new data showing that manufacturing activity contracted in the US in February, with the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index dropping to 48.3 in February after being at 50.7 in January.

Any reading below 50 in the ISM’s index indicates a contraction rather than growth.

Despite the gains for the yen, other Asian currencies were weaker versus the US dollar on concerns that the slowing US economy will hurt demand for products from Asia.

The weakness of the U.S. dollar and the possibility of lower interest rates have drawn fresh investment to the oil market, driving the price of oil to over $103 per barrel for the first time.

An energy analyst said such conditions tend to drive investment away from currency and toward commodities, such as oil, which retain an intrinsic value while currency markets fluctuate. He said, however, that a bubble is emerging.

The analyst, Victor Shum of Purvin & Gertz, said investors are ignoring market fundamentals that indicate steady increases in U.S. crude oil supply, while forecasters predict slower growth in oil demand due to the stagnant economy.

Source: news.yahoo.com

The US dollar was lower versus the euro on Wednesday on comments from US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed is “ready” to do what is necessary to protect the US economy.

Many analysts took this to meant that more interest rate cuts are coming in the US, and some traders expect the cuts to amount to 2 more percent by the middle of the year.

The main US interest rate now stands at 3 percent.

The dollar also declined on new Commerce Department data which showed that durable goods orders in the US fell 5.3 percent in January, more of a decline than had been expected.

At around 11:30 a.m. in New York, the dollar was trading at $1.5122 to the euro and at $1.9910 to the pound, while it took ¥106.4100 or SFr1.0640 to buy a dollar.

The Canadian dollar was higher on gains in commodities prices, with one loonie worth $1.0193.

The Australian dollar saw gains on the possibility that interest rates there will go up in March in an attempt to control inflation.

The expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 7.25 percent sent the US dollar to 94.09 cents to the Australian dollar by late morning trade in New York.

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The euro broke the 1.50-dollar mark for the first time ever Tuesday following US economic reports that renewed fears the American economy could be falling into a recession.

The European currency reached 1.5047 dollars at 2230 GMT Tuesday before falling back to 1.5017 dollars.

Analysts say the euro was given a sudden boost from a better-than-expected German business indicator, which stood out amid a series of lackluster macroeconomic indicators in the United States.

The greenback has come under pressure as traders believe sluggish economic reports could pressure the Federal Reserve to keep cutting US interest rates.

Speculators generally prefer to invest or hold currencies in countries where interest rates are rising or expected to increase in they hopes they can increase their potential returns.

The dollar fell to a record low against the single European currency in electronic trading in New York as traders continued assessing the latest economic readings.

An influential survey, released earlier Tuesday, on US consumer sentiment during February delivered fresh ammunition to market forecasters who are predicting a recession.

The Conference Board private research group said its consumer confidence index dived to a reading of 75.0 in February, compared with 87.3 in January. The index had also fallen in January.

The survey showed the confidence of American consumers had slumped to its lowest level since November 1993, with the exception of polling conducted as US forces toppled the government of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein five years ago.

'With so few consumers expecting conditions to turnaround in the months ahead, the outlook for the economy continues to worsen and the risk of a recession continues to increase,' said Lynn Franco, a director of the Conference Board's consumer research center.

The euro's new record run saw it smash a prior record high of 1.4967 dollars struck on Nov 23.

A separate report on wholesale inflation also weighed on the dollar's fortunes, market participants said.

The Labor Department said inflation at the wholesale level surged a stronger-than-expected 1.0 percent in January due to rising food and energy prices.

The accelerating costs of food and energy -- especially crude oil prices -- have caused producer prices to rocket 7.4 percent in the United States in the past twelve months to January.

'Inflation data is clearly not good. The 1.7 percent increase in food prices and the 1.5 percent increase in energy prices will further fuel the recently heightened inflationary concerns,' said Dick Green, president of Briefing.com.

The dollar has lost considerable ground against the euro and other currencies in the past year amid a two-year long housing slump and a credit crunch sweeping financial markets.

The economic turmoil has encouraged the Fed to slash borrowing costs, which has further weighed on the American currency.

Traders said US budget and trade deficits were also undermining the dollar, although recent reports have shown the weak dollar giving a boost to American-produced exports.

Market participants said a better-than-expected report on German business conditions had also helped buoy the euro.

'The German Ifo survey for business confidence unexpectedly rose for the second consecutive month in February, rallying the euro,' said Boris Schlossberg, a senior currency analyst at Forex Capital Markets.

An index of how managers assess the current business climate compiled by Germany's Ifo institute rose in February for the second month running to 104.1 from 103.4 in January.

British energy giant, British Gas, have broken into the wrong house. Couple David Houghton and Abby Simpson came home from holiday to find their locks picked by the company, a perfectly legal thing for British Gas to do if the couple had owed money.

Houghton has been fighting British Gas since he cancelled the contract his flat had with the company, and switched to EDF. British Gas continued to bill him from then on, but Houghton received an apology from the CEO, and thought the matter resolved.

British Gas switched the couple's metre to a pay-as-you-go unit, and left a note. The couple nextdoor were actually the one to owe British Gas money. The company has apologised, reimbursed the couple and blamed the mix up on Royal Mail.

Source: www.dailymail.co.uk

Reading a foreign exchange quote may seem a bit confusing at first. However, it's really quite simple if you remember two things:

1. The first currency listed first is the base currency and

2. The value of the base currency is always 1.

The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes. In the "Majors," this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD.

For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/JPY 120.01 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 120.01 Japanese yen.

When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened.

If the USD/JPY quote we previously mentioned increases to 123.01, the dollar is stronger because it will now buy more yen than before.

The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as GBP/USD 1.4366, meaning that one British pound equals 1.4366 U.S. dollars.

In these three currency pairs, where the U.S. dollar is not the base rate, a rising quote means a weakening dollar, as it now takes more U.S. dollars to equal one pound, euro or Australian dollar.

In other words, if a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.

Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same. For example, a quote of EUR/JPY 127.95 signifies that one Euro is equal to 127.95 Japanese yen.

When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a "bid" and an "offer."

The "bid" is the price at which you can sell the base currency -- at the same time buying the counter currency.

The "ask" is the price at which you can buy the base currency -- at the same time selling the counter currency.

The dollar eased further versus the euro and sterling following another round of weak US economic data, falling to 1.4708 and 1.9722, respectively. A key indicator of consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 16-years with the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment survey dropping to 69.6, versus 78.4 from January. Industrial output in January crept up marginally to 0.1% versus a flat reading in December. Meanwhile, capacity utilization also increased slightly to 81.5% from 81.4% a month earlier. Also released was the December net capital flows (TIC), which more than halved to $60.4 billion, versus a revised $150.8 billion a month prior.

The string of soft US data reinforces fears that the economy is headed toward a recession, thereby prompting the Fed to aggressively ease rates over the coming months. Fed funds futures contracts reflected a 60% probability for the FOMC to cut rates by 50-basis points to 2.50% at the next policy setting meeting in March.

According to flash estimates of Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, euro area GDP rose by 0.4% in the forth quarter 2007. The data was below GDP index in the third quarter, when euro area economy rose by 0.8%, but slightly above analysts’ estimates as they expected increase by 0.3%.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, euro area GDP increased by 2.3%, after 2.7% in the third quarter. The analysts expected increase by 2.2%.

Eurostat also reported of GDP growth of its major partners, USA and Japan. US GDP was 0.2% in the forth quarter, after increase by 1.3% in the third quarter. GDP in Japan increased by 0.9% in the forth quarter, after 0.3% in the third quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew in the forth quarter by 2.5% in US and 1.8% in Japan, after 2.8% and 1.9% in the third quarter respectively.

Initial U.S. jobless claims dropped for the second consecutive week, after a large jump last month, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Claims for the week ended Feb. 9 fell 9,000 to 348,000. The prior weekly claims level was revised to 357,000.

The four-week moving average of new claims gained 12,000 to 347,250.

U.S. continuing jobless claims fell 9,000 to 2.76 million.

Forex fundamental analysis involves examining the intrinsic value of a nation’s currency based on economic news releases that reflect the strength, or weakness, of a country’s economy.

Fundamental traders follow these news announcements, known as “fundamental indicators,” because they paint a picture of a currency's strength in relation to other countries.

Fundamental indicators are reports that include statistical data on things such as employment, gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, retail sales, housing, manufacturing, and interest rates.

The stability, growth, or decline in any of these sectors may have an effect – direct or indirect – on the value of a country’s currency.

Central banks play a key role in the Forex market because they have the responsibility of changing the country’s "base" interest rate. A central bank has to find a fine balance when setting interest rates as it wants to maintain growth in the economy, but at the same time it has to be careful to curtail inflation.

The bank’s decisions on whether to raise, cut, or hold the interest rate fuels speculation in the Forex market, where the value of a currency, or group of currencies, changes in real time.

In addition to information about a country’s economy, the value of a currency is connected to national and international political events, elections, and changes in government trade policies.

The prices of sensitive commodities like oil and gasoline are an important fundamental indicator as high prices can hurt consumer spending and confidence, and curtail the activities of certain businesses and government services.

Natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and militarily actions in a sensitive region cause instability in the world and have a significant impact on the Forex market as they develop. These types of evens can be hard to predict in advance.

The ability to identify trends in macroeconomic indicators and reading central bank’s current and future actions is a valuable tool that comes from following financial news, watching the markets, and trading Forex.

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of well over US$1 trillion -- 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets.

"Foreign Exchange" is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).

There are two reasons to buy and sell currencies. About 5% of daily turnover is from companies and governments that buy or sell products and services in a foreign country or must convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency.

The other 95% is trading for profit, or speculation.

For speculators, the best trading opportunities are with the most commonly traded (and therefore most liquid) currencies, called "the Majors."

Today, more than 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the Majors, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.

A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York.

Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.

The FX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'interbank' market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network.

Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets.